Kalibrierung: Holdout pro Match, Kanarienvogel ignoriert Summons/Sonder-Items, Baseline-Vergleich

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/tft/cli.py

@@ -82,13 +82,17 @@ def main() -> None:
         from tft import db
         from tft.model import artifact as artifact_mod
         from tft.model.calibrate import calibrate
+        from tft.staticdata.fetch import load_static
 
         conn = db.connect()
-        art = artifact_mod.load(current_set())
-        result = calibrate(conn, art, holdout_only=True)
+        learned_art = artifact_mod.load(current_set())
+        baseline_art = artifact_mod.build(load_static(), {})
+        r_base = calibrate(conn, baseline_art, holdout_only=True)
+        r_learned = calibrate(conn, learned_art, holdout_only=True)
         conn.close()
-        print(f"holdout matches: {result['matches']}")
-        print(f"mean spearman (score vs placement): {result['mean_spearman']:.3f}")
+        print(f"holdout matches: {r_learned['matches']}")
+        print(f"spearman baseline: {r_base['mean_spearman']:.3f}")
+        print(f"spearman learned:  {r_learned['mean_spearman']:.3f}")
 
     elif args.command == "autoplay":
         from tft.constants.loader import load_constants

backend/tft/matches/extract.py

@@ -39,16 +39,29 @@ def extract_match(match: dict) -> list[tuple]:
     return rows
 
 
+BENIGN_UNIT_HINTS = ("minion", "summon", "pve", "follower")
+
+
 def validate_ids(rows: list[tuple], static: dict) -> Counter:
-    """Count ids in endboards that are unknown to the static data (patch-drift canary)."""
+    """Count ids in endboards that are unknown to the static data (patch-drift canary).
+
+    Summons/PvE-Units und Sonder-Items (Radiant, Ornn, ...) sind erwartbar
+    unbekannt und werden ignoriert.
+    """
     unknown: Counter = Counter()
     known_items = set(static["items"]) | set(static["augments"])
+    set_prefix = f"TFT{static['meta']['set']}_"
     for row in rows:
         for u in json.loads(row[8]):
-            if u["character_id"] not in static["units"]:
-                unknown[f"unit:{u['character_id']}"] += 1
+            api = u["character_id"]
+            if api not in static["units"]:
+                if not any(h in api.lower() for h in BENIGN_UNIT_HINTS):
+                    unknown[f"unit:{api}"] += 1
             for item in u.get("itemNames", []):
-                if item not in known_items:
+                if item in known_items:
+                    continue
+                # Nur Items des aktuellen Sets oder generische zählen als Drift.
+                if item.startswith("TFT_Item_") or item.startswith(set_prefix):
                     unknown[f"item:{item}"] += 1
         for t in json.loads(row[9]):
             if t["name"] not in static["traits"]:

backend/tft/model/calibrate.py

@@ -49,7 +49,8 @@ def calibrate(conn, artifact: dict, holdout_only: bool = False) -> dict:
     set_number = artifact["meta"]["set"]
     where = "WHERE set_number = ?"
     if holdout_only:
-        where += " AND rowid % 5 = 0"
+        # Holdout pro MATCH (nicht pro Board), sonst gibt es keine vollständigen 8er.
+        where += " AND substr(match_id, -1) IN ('0', '5')"
     rows = conn.execute(
         f"SELECT match_id, placement, units, augments FROM endboards {where}",
         (set_number,),

backend/tft/model/learn.py

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ def learn(rows: list[tuple]) -> dict:
 def learn_from_db(conn, set_number: int, exclude_holdout: bool = True) -> dict:
     where = "WHERE set_number = ?"
     if exclude_holdout:
-        where += " AND rowid % 5 != 0"
+        where += " AND substr(match_id, -1) NOT IN ('0', '5')"
     rows = conn.execute(
         f"SELECT placement, units, traits, augments FROM endboards {where}",
         (set_number,),